Donald Trump and Jeb Bush are saving American politics

You may be reading this and thinking 'Kelly is a bit late because Jeb quite the race'. I know that. I'm writing this on Sunday 2/21/16. Here's what Jeb and Trump have done to save politics. They have proven that money has very little effect on votes.

The narrative has been whoever raises the most money wins. That the donor class is buying themselves candidates which translates into a corrupt political system. Jeb Bush and his pac have raised 155,6 million. 2nd place is Ted Cruz with 89.9 million. That's not even close which traditionally meant this race was over. Now despite what Donald Trump says on the campaign trail he is raising money. He has raised 19.4 million. You can see a lot of his donors here who have donated 2500 or more. His website asks you to donate here as well.  In reality the Trump campaign is skating on thin ice now as they have spent most of that money and are now down to 7 million left. But Donald has spent far less per vote than Jeb. According to a story today in the Washington Post, Trump has spent $64 per every vote he has received. Jeb spent $368 per vote. This shows that ads don't translate into votes. It's the message and the messenger.

Now I hear some yelling at their screen 'Nash you're an idiot! Trump is a candidate like no other so this data is flawed'. Of course that's true. But then how do you explain the candidate who has spent the 2nd most per vote...John Kasich. Kasich has received a little over 100,000 votes and spent $72 per vote. Kasich's message is simple. I'm a right of center guy who balances budgets, but believes government should do more for the poor. I'm very electable in a general election because I am the Governor of Ohio which is one of three swing states which usually decides who wins. The message and the messenger, who comes across as a very competent guy who is very sweet (he is famous for hugging people) is a winner for traditional conservatives.

The mood of the GOP is clearly not traditional this year. Since 2008 the conservative movement has become more frustrated. They want a fighter. They want someone to fix the mess that they perceive the country has been falling into since around 2005. Yes the mood of conservatives started souring during the 2nd term of George W Bush. In other words they have been in a bad mood for about 11 years and it started with a Republican. So it doesn't matter how much Bush or Kasich spends they can't win this year.  And that's great news for those of you who are concerned about how much money is in politics.

Now if we can convince campaigns that they're wasting a lot of money with the amount of ads they run, mail they send, and calls they make we can all begin to enjoy the process more.

If you want my prediction on how the rest of the race will go, it's simple. The 3 candidates have drawn their bases already. Trump is the guy who will fight to blow up a broken system. Cruz is the guy who will never compromise to outside pressure or bend to the liberals. Rubio is the guy who can fix the system buy luring lawmakers back to the conservative agenda. All 3 are outsiders with the 2 Senators first going to DC in  2011 and 2012 as Tea Party candidates, who beat well established Republicans,  and Trump having never served. Obviously the blow up the system crowd has a lead. But the stand firm to liberals and the lure the liberals crowd are pretty popular as well. I predict that there's no possible way to know who will win at this point, because so much can change. But I do know it won't be Kasich or even Carson.

 Carson is on that top tier of fund raising having raised over 66 million. And he has a message that probably would have worked this year. However his energy is too low for people to see him as a fighter which is required from this cycle of GOP candidates. And we know that because Carson has outspent most candidates. You didn't know that did you? Cruz and Rubio combined have spent 50 million. (28 for Cruz, 22 for Rubio) Carson has blown through 47 million himself! And yet no votes. Carson has by far the worst ration of dollars per vote at $795/1. With a general election winner receiving around 60 million votes the Carson campaign would have to spend 47 billion! Not only is that impossible (that far surpasses the amount of money the TV and radio and internet ad business brings in during a year) it still wouldn't move the needle much. Because it's what advertisers have known for years. If your product isn't something the public wants you can only fool them with marketing till they try it. Once people have seen Carson and Kasich for themselves the interest the ad's created blows away. And no amount of money can bring it back.